A mere two months ago that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were a symptom or a cause for Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. As Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough proposition to answer. History, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa had an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a team that have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – but right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
